Four-quarter forecast
Reduced CBR model 2 (ДДКП) with a fixed 4% target and a 4.5% NAIRU anchor, fitted to data up to 2026Q3 (vintage 2026-09-03). 2026Q3 is a nowcast; the forecast runs 2026Q4–2027Q3. Choose an FX regime and an oil price to update every figure below.
FX regime (switch from 2026Q4)
Key items
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Paths
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- These are conditional model paths. No real-time out-of-sample backtest has been run, and parity with CBR's native MATLAB/IRIS implementation has not been established.
- CPI, wages and unemployment are observed through 2026Q2; GDP through 2026Q1. The 2026Q3 column uses partial financial data only.
- Assumed supply shock: +1.5 annualised log pp of direct headline inflation in 2026Q3 through fuel prices, reversed in 2027Q1 and known in advance. It is an assumption, not a measurement.
- The oil slider shifts the model's own Brent path in proportion. The path is announced in 2026Q4 and known to agents from then. It moves only the cyclical oil terms-of-trade gap: the budget rule's base oil price and the equilibrium terms of trade are unchanged, and the gap decays after 2027Q3. Responses are linear in log Brent, and the CPI interval is shifted with the central path rather than re-estimated.
- The policy rate is the model's short rate, measured by RUONIA. The real policy rate is that rate minus model-expected core inflation. Output gap, equilibrium unemployment and the real policy rate are never observed.
- The 80% CPI interval covers filtered state uncertainty and future structural shocks only, not parameter, model, regime, oil or supply-size uncertainty.
- FX regimes are unexpected permanent changes from 2026Q4, sharing the same 2026Q3 posterior. FX support is an equation wedge; reserves, funding and costs are not modelled.
All assumptions, calibration and measured data are on the inputs sheet.